How your neighborhood will change by 2038

New Zealand is becoming a super diverse nation, but its diversity story is a stratified one – drawn along ethnic and economic lines.

Herald Insights, a new data journalism site on nzherald.co.nz, is launched today and an interactive allows readers to explore projections of ethnic makeups in Auckland neighbourhoods and every territorial authority in the country.

Policy changes may see other New Zealand cities and towns become just as diverse as Auckland is presently.

Projections show that Hamilton City, in 2038, will be just as diverse as the Auckland of today – except with a higher Maori population of 28 per cent.

The European group will drop from 70 to 59 per cent, but Asians will increase from 14 to 23 per cent and Pasifika from 5 to 10 per cent.

New immigration measures, designed to get immigrants to settle outside Auckland came into effect this month.

Skilled migrants get triple bonus points and entrepreneurs double if they worked or set up businesses in the regions.

Massey University immigration expert Paul Spoonley said: “If getting the points are a challenge to gain approval to settle permanently in New Zealand, then one strategy would be to agree to go to a non-Auckland centre or region.”

The ethnic mix of New Zealand’s two other main cities, Wellington and Christchurch, will however remain by and large the same.

In Wellington, there will be just a slight increase of Maori from 8 to 10 per cent, Asians from 16 to 24 per cent and no change for Pasifika at 5 per cent.

However, the European group there will decline slightly from 77 to 70 per cent.

Christchurch will see a near doubling of Asian population from 10 to 19 per cent in 2038, but the European population will still make up 77 per cent.

Asia NZ Foundation executive Simon Draper said Asians settling in the regions was not a new phenomenon, but significantly enhanced by immigration changes.

“Chinese immigration to the Queenstown area dates back to the 1860s gold rush,” Mr Draper said.

“But the significant growth in the regions happened since the immigration reforms of the 1980s, and particularly in the last decade.”

In the Queenstown-Lakes district, the Asian group is projected to increase from 8 per cent today to 13 per cent in 2038.

The data analysed by the Herald also shows that in some areas with lower median income, Europeans could all but disappear, such as in Manurewa, Otara-Papatoetoe and Mangere-Otahuhu, where they have gone from majority to minority.

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Source : http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11542027